牽動世界經濟全局的複雜希臘國債問題

1月30日，Ellis Martin電話訪問Jim Sinclair (Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation董事長)，道出美國政治操作希臘國債問題的秘辛。Sinclair指出，美國五個最大銀行，組成一個International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)，承攬世界其他銀行或投資機構購買許多國家國債的保險業務 (credit default swaps)，共達整體的97%，當希臘正準備以約30%的價值償還債權人，這五大銀行就必須進行賠償；但在此之前，這五大銀行(Under "EMEA")須先「認定」希臘為「破產」。可是這五大銀行付不起70%希臘國債的損失，為免搬石頭砸自己的腳，因此有可能「不予認定」。


又由於美國聯準會介入金援歐盟，間接紓困歐盟的銀行，正值歐巴馬要競選連任，這些銀行也捐給歐巴馬不少錢，甚至比歐巴馬的共和黨對手Romney多好幾倍，政治獻金名單及金額見這裡 (Under "Keynes and Behemoth: The Corporatocracy")，因此他們若最後裁決「不予認定」，會被外界認為是為避免影響歐巴馬選情的政治操作。可是有了去年10月31日MF Global「破產」時、償還50%債務的先例，希臘若只償還30%、卻「未被認定為『破產』」，勢將引起另一波爭執。

正因為美國聯準會金援歐盟5000億美元，形同另一波「全球」的量化寬鬆 (Quantitative easing)，這陣子暫時讓國際間有了急貶美元的共識，充沛的資金流入市場，導致美股及黃金帶頭領漲。歐洲銀行已向歐洲央行開口要求原先預估紓困金額兩倍甚至三倍的借款，一但這波希臘國債問題底定，這五大銀行又與歐洲銀行或投資機構談不攏保險金的支付，造成資金出現暫時短絀、周轉不靈，就可能兩敗俱傷，並同時大大影響歐盟與美國的經濟。以下是訪問中，Jim Sinclair說明最完整的一個片段，全文未修改的逐字稿請見這裡。

Jim Sinclair: Well, you have to understand the critical nature of today, today the time we're talking our listeners and between ourselves. The return to quantitative easing is an event which impacts liquidity. Historically always and into the future the main motivator for the general equities markets, the Netflixs and the Googles, of the world is liquidity. The reason why we came of out the bear market in 2009 was quantitative easing.

The reason we've been able to hold the general equity levels that are relatively high levels meaning circling around that 1,200 on the Dow is without any question liquidity. The grease of the wheels of the general equities market has always been not necessarily earnings per share. Not necessarily valuations historically. But, rather the presence of liquidity or lack of liquidity in the in the market at any given time. The advent of quantitative easing is good for gold. It is good for the general equities markets. It is negative for the dollar and positive for other than dollar items.

However, QE is not a solution to anything. Quantitative easing or the increasing of liquidity or the actually creation of money out of thin air is the bubble making mechanism that you saw in real estate. It's a bubble making mechanism that you see in asset values. It puts money into the hands of people that have to make investment decisions and will make them generally along the lines of what their most familiar with and what they're most used to dealing in.

Today we are standing on the threshold of a credit event that is the determination of how the Greek debt will be handled amongst the euro nations. The people who will define what that credit event is, is the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will determine whether a credit event is a default, sovereign default or not.

In the most practical sense we're in an election year. In the most practical sense and recognizing that five of the U.S. major banks hold 97% of the obligations on credit default swaps that is that they have guaranteed the buyer of this instrument against the default of an instrument primarily euro debt. So, the credit default swap is actually an insurance policy that brokerage firms issue. And, there is an organization which oversees that basically writes the master agreements.

Came into existence in the early 1900/1992, I mean, early 1990s. It was the body that determined that Goldman and Deutsche Bank and all those should be paid out on the shorted backed issues. It's the body that will determine whether or not a sovereign nation has defaulted. So, as we kick the can forward we'll have to for practical reasons, 97% of this insurance policy granted by five the U.S. largest banks, this credit event about to happen the 30% or approximately, it's got a 3 in front of it, where the euro will, where it will be determined that Greece's debt will payout is either going to be determined to be a credit default or not a credit default.

Excuse me. Yes, a credit default or not a credit default by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is primarily made up of representatives of the banks that deal in these items. And, logic would say that their determination would be that no matter what happens to the Greek debt it's not a default because if they decided otherwise they'd have to payout.

What I'm doing for you is giving out a case of why more liquidity not less liquidity is forthcoming, why we've already set up and why the Fed last week already announced the return to QE. While even before that in late December the Fed provided over $500 billion dollars worth of swaps to the ECB who in turn lent that money to their member banks who in turn used that money to buy euro debt, which is global quantitative easing. The bottom line is what's taking place is good for equities as it is good for gold investments as it is not that good for the dollar.

It's very complex. We've made this world so complex that simplicity no longer exists in casinos everywhere. Bottom line of this analysis, both equity markets and equities of gold and gold itself should rise. Bottom line of this analysis 80 to 82 is the top on the dollar for fundamental reasons. The real importance of this analysis is that you cannot kick this can of credit default swaps much further down the road because there is a point, the point is zero.

How in the world would the International Swaps and Derivatives Association say that Greece was not in default if they paid back 10% of what they owed? We're nothing of what they owe. And, five major banks holding these had to insure the debt. And, in going to insure the debt compared to the capital of the banks they don't have it. It's another paper game we've created to enrich the banking industry and to put the entire world into potential jeopardy.