2019-06-01

柯文哲版的「該來的不來」

文哲連任時,流失32%選票(見下圖),反而讓丁守中守住連勝文選票的94%,其他的藍營5%顯然也沒投給柯。另外,姚文智拿到244,342票,柯卻少了273,320票;不只綠營跑了,連中間選票都不見了。換句話說,柯四年來、投「藍紅」所好的言行,都是做白工;而他很早就宣稱可以掌握的「經濟藍、知識藍、淺藍」,只在民調上製造他支持度不墜的假象,實際上卻完全沒投他。剩下支持他的,只是一群不願讓國民黨拿走台北市而已。



我們先前提過到的「該來的不來」故事,在此剛好可以分成前後三段,分別對照:柯文哲批離職的人「沒得抽」、嘲笑民進黨「養虎為患」及把領養的狗戲稱為「柯黑」,「不經意的一句話,卻讓人輕易看清其真正立場與心態」。

「該來的不來」故事柯文哲流失的支持
有個人請客,看看時間過了,還有一大半的客人沒來,主人心裏很焦急,便說:「怎麼搞的,該來的客人還不來?」

一些敏感的客人聽到了,心想:「該來的沒來,那我們是不該來的囉?」於是悄悄地走了。
2017/09/29 名嘴黃越宏爆料,柯文哲跟他聊天時,談到市府人員紛紛離職,竟說「啊!沒得抽,就走了」。

(反過來說,留下來的,就是「有得抽」?)
主人一看又走掉好幾位客人,越發著急了,便說:「怎麼這些不該走的客人,反倒走了呢?」

剩下的客人一聽,又想:「走了的是不該走的,那我們這些沒走的倒是該走的了!」於是又都走了。
2018/08/30 「那時候,你要說『養虎為患』也是,當年是幾乎所有綠營的部長一對一家教般地教我,他們教我一遍,再去教小英,我是被試教的,所以我們兩個是同一套老師教出來的。」你是虎嗎?「就是說,哇!因為這個學生太聰明了,就全部都教給我。」

(其餘幫過他的,豈不是也會被他譏笑,「養虎為患」?)
最後只剩下一個跟主人較接近的朋友,看了這種尷尬的場面,就勸他說:「你說話前應該先考慮一下,否則說錯了,就不容易收回來了。」

主人大叫冤枉,急忙解釋說:「我並不是叫他們走哇!」

朋友聽了大為光火,說:「不是叫他們走,那就是叫我走了?」說完,頭也不回地離開了。
2019/05/29 鍾小平原先說要將小黑狗取名為「柯粉」,柯文哲聽聞後頻頻大笑,也開玩笑地說,這隻黑狗應該叫「柯黑」。

(這不就呈現,在他心中真實的想法,不管是「柯黑」或者「柯粉」,都被他當成「狗」?)

現在最大的問題,不只在柯文哲把「柯黑」當狗嘲弄,連「柯粉」都一樣,這些都會回映在支持他的選票上。其實,柯為了凸顯自己的優越感,把台灣人視為狗,已不是第一次了,他早在2016年1月3日就說過:「台灣只有順民,因為個性跟基因有關,比較乖的狗跟比較乖的狗交配,生出來狗比較乖,而台灣歷史上反抗者都被抓來殺,剩下比較乖的人結婚,所以台灣人越來越乖。」



2019-05-25

柯文哲「支那基金」大賠,遷怒蔡英文!

文哲自從2014年選上台北市長後,就開始媚共:如2017年,習近平要聽柯在《中天電視》講了「兩岸一家親」與「兩岸命運共同體」,才允許他參加上海「雙城論壇」,此外,柯還加碼大罵蔡英文推動的「前瞻計劃」。同樣的戲碼,今年又在參加該「論壇」(預計6月或7月)之前上演,柯除了攻訐蔡英文的「兩岸政策」之外,還罵她是「挑釁者」,跟郭台銘指責她「麻煩製造者」的態度一模一樣,很多人都認為柯文哲一定有什麼把柄被捏在中共手中。


在釐清柯文哲與支那的關係之前,卻看到在2018年2019年公職人員財產申報資料,他分別投資2檔及4檔「支那基金」。我們檢視「境外基金」及「國內基金」的績效,從2018年2月28日關稅貿易戰開打~至今,發現都呈現大賠。

如3檔「境外基金」,一度跌幅超過25%,現在還是賠:


唯一的「國內基金」,一度跌幅約40%,現在也好不到哪裡去:


關稅貿易戰是支那不遵守對WTO的承諾,由受害最深的美國總統川普發動的,台灣(產業)也是受害者。「基金」購買前,也都規定須把風險告知投資人;如今「基金」有所損失,卻遷怒蔡英文,實在說不過去。



2019-05-16

習近平先下台?還是鴻海集團先瓦解?

幾天,我們才預測:因為反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,被川普加增關稅報復,進退兩難的習近平,有可能在一個月內被政變推翻下台,或是狗急跳牆、不惜發動戰爭,來轉移關稅貿易戰困境。昨天川普又簽署一個行政命令,授權商務部長禁止美國企業與影響美國國家安全的外敵控制公司做生意;美國商務部隨即公布,加入華為及其70家子公司到禁止跟美國企業購買零組件的實體清單,5/17即開始實施。

Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List
WASHINGTON – Today, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will be adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its affiliates to the Bureau’s Entity List. This action stems from information available to the Department that provides a reasonable basis to conclude that Huawei is engaged in activities that are contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interest. This information includes the activities alleged in the Department of Justice’s public superseding indictment of Huawei, including alleged violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), conspiracy to violate IEEPA by providing prohibited financial services to Iran, and obstruction of justice in connection with the investigation of those alleged violations of U.S. sanctions.

The sale or transfer of American technology to a company or person on the Entity List requires a license issued by BIS, and a license may be denied if the sale or transfer would harm U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. The listing will be effective when published in the Federal Register.

“This action by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, with the support of the President of the United States, places Huawei, a Chinese owned company that is the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, on the Entity List. This will prevent American technology from being used by foreign owned entities in ways that potentially undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “President Trump has directed the Commerce Department to be vigilant in its protection of national security activities. Since the beginning of the Administration, the Department has added 190 persons or organizations to the Entity List, as well as instituted five investigations of the effect of imports on national security under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962.” Additions to the Entity List are decided by the End-User Review Committee which is comprised of officials from the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, State Department, and Department of Energy. Under § 744.11(b) of the Export Administration Regulations, persons or organizations for whom there is reasonable cause to believe that they are involved, were involved, or pose a significant risk of becoming involved in activities that are contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States, and those acting on behalf of such persons, may be added to the Entity List.

The Bureau of Industry and Security’s mission is to advance U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives by ensuring an effective export control and treaty compliance system and promoting continued U.S. strategic technology leadership. BIS is committed to preventing U.S.-origin items from supporting Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) projects, terrorism, or destabilizing military modernization programs.

而鴻海流失大幅蘋果訂單後,華為等支那公司已成為該集團的大客戶。川普的行政禁令,等於重擊鴻海集團。且在3月21日,郭台銘與華為高層開會,決定將原本群創的訂單全部轉給郭個人與深圳市政府合資的深超光電,以利該公司上市發大財,群創則變成深超光電的小包商,顯有掏空之嫌。


群創已連續兩季虧損,去年第四季虧損7億元,今年第一季稅後虧損37.25億元,每股虧損0.37元,明顯惡化,也創下近3年來單季最差紀錄。經營團隊也在昨天公布決議,董事長兼CEO洪進揚以及總經理楊柱祥自5月起減薪15%,協理級以上高階主管自6月起集體減薪10%。

一天內,數個利空同時衝擊,鴻海集團會不會在習近平下台前先行瓦解,值得關注。

有趣的是,劉仲敬在5/8的訪談亦提到郭台銘跟他的富士康。劉認為習近平反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,是為了維護他的獨裁體制。而郭站在習的對立陣營中,貿易戰一旦開始,他的富士康就要全部垮臺。



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