2019-05-16

習近平先下台?還是鴻海集團先瓦解?

幾天,我們才預測:因為反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,被川普加增關稅報復,進退兩難的習近平,有可能在一個月內被政變推翻下台,或是狗急跳牆、不惜發動戰爭,來轉移關稅貿易戰困境。昨天川普又簽署一個行政命令,授權商務部長禁止美國企業與影響美國國家安全的外敵控制公司做生意;美國商務部隨即公布,加入華為及其70家子公司到禁止跟美國企業購買零組件的實體清單,5/17即開始實施。

Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List
WASHINGTON – Today, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will be adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its affiliates to the Bureau’s Entity List. This action stems from information available to the Department that provides a reasonable basis to conclude that Huawei is engaged in activities that are contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interest. This information includes the activities alleged in the Department of Justice’s public superseding indictment of Huawei, including alleged violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), conspiracy to violate IEEPA by providing prohibited financial services to Iran, and obstruction of justice in connection with the investigation of those alleged violations of U.S. sanctions.

The sale or transfer of American technology to a company or person on the Entity List requires a license issued by BIS, and a license may be denied if the sale or transfer would harm U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. The listing will be effective when published in the Federal Register.

“This action by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, with the support of the President of the United States, places Huawei, a Chinese owned company that is the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, on the Entity List. This will prevent American technology from being used by foreign owned entities in ways that potentially undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “President Trump has directed the Commerce Department to be vigilant in its protection of national security activities. Since the beginning of the Administration, the Department has added 190 persons or organizations to the Entity List, as well as instituted five investigations of the effect of imports on national security under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962.” Additions to the Entity List are decided by the End-User Review Committee which is comprised of officials from the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, State Department, and Department of Energy. Under § 744.11(b) of the Export Administration Regulations, persons or organizations for whom there is reasonable cause to believe that they are involved, were involved, or pose a significant risk of becoming involved in activities that are contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States, and those acting on behalf of such persons, may be added to the Entity List.

The Bureau of Industry and Security’s mission is to advance U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives by ensuring an effective export control and treaty compliance system and promoting continued U.S. strategic technology leadership. BIS is committed to preventing U.S.-origin items from supporting Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) projects, terrorism, or destabilizing military modernization programs.

而鴻海流失大幅蘋果訂單後,華為等支那公司已成為該集團的大客戶。川普的行政禁令,等於重擊鴻海集團。且在3月21日,郭台銘與華為高層開會,決定將原本群創的訂單全部轉給郭個人與深圳市政府合資的深超光電,以利該公司上市發大財,群創則變成深超光電的小包商,顯有掏空之嫌。


群創已連續兩季虧損,去年第四季虧損7億元,今年第一季稅後虧損37.25億元,每股虧損0.37元,明顯惡化,也創下近3年來單季最差紀錄。經營團隊也在昨天公布決議,董事長兼CEO洪進揚以及總經理楊柱祥自5月起減薪15%,協理級以上高階主管自6月起集體減薪10%。

一天內,數個利空同時衝擊,鴻海集團會不會在習近平下台前先行瓦解,值得關注。

有趣的是,劉仲敬在5/8的訪談亦提到郭台銘跟他的富士康。劉認為習近平反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,是為了維護他的獨裁體制。而郭站在習的對立陣營中,貿易戰一旦開始,他的富士康就要全部垮臺。



2019-05-12

習近平一個月內下台,台灣要備戰防入侵!

2016年底,川普剛選上總統、即與蔡英文通話;後來,他也質疑,支那不配合美國在貿易、南海、匯率、北韓...等等問題上的利益,其何必受到美國以往「一中政策」的約束。我們當時判斷,川普要求的代價,「中共現在不一定付得起,也一定不想付」。事情發展到,習近平決定「反悔」與美國談好的貿易協議,讓自己已無轉圜之地;而且在川普一個月最後通牒之下(見下圖),習不管要不要讓步,都已註定下台一途。


換句話說,不管美國對支那全面實施25%關稅、或是習近平全盤讓步,都難以達成他在2020年、實現支那GDP(國內生產毛額)翻倍及全面達成小康社會的承諾。關稅貿易戰對股市信心(見下圖)、外資投資及產業鍊整個外移的影響,更不容小覷。


談判不成的劉鶴回國後,習近平要是用王岐山把熟悉支那真實經濟窘狀及唯一知道怎麼跟美國談判的他換掉(見下圖),等於拿劉祭旗向美國宣戰。我們推測,在中共內部還在爭論是否退讓之際,習很有可能不是被政變推翻下台,就是狗急跳牆、不惜發動戰爭,來轉移貿易戰困境。


按照中共已有的「反制」思維「你打我,我就打台灣」,縱然台灣的金門與馬祖成為他們突襲攻佔的最佳目標之一,然而釣魚台與南海也都無法排除。因為發動戰爭的目的,當然在製造混亂,讓與美的貿易談判,可以無限期拖延下去、或甚至終止。





2019-04-24

韓國瑜懼怕國民黨初選的主因

國瑜關於參選總統的五點聲明,擺明了就是「我只要黃袍加身,其餘免談」。目前國民黨初選民調方式雖未定,但採「民意調查占70%,加黨員投票占30%」(立委初選)或全民調,勢在必行,因此就有「廢除國民黨初選、直接徵召韓國瑜」的輿論操作。其恐懼參與該黨初選的主因,在擔心民調時、會被綠營作掉。這其實就是他近幾個月來,利用民進黨總統初選全民調的缺陷,「介入民進黨初選、力拱賴清德出線」的手段;我們樂見,韓被自己的手段反噬。

目前各種民調,不管是傳統電話純手機調查,都顯示藍營干擾民進黨的初選,「正在決定」民進黨的總統候選人;也就是說,藍營以支持蔡英文「二~三倍」的力道、支持賴清德,想「指定」賴出線。

除了上述民調數據之外,以下是其他藍營干擾民進黨初選與激化蔡英文與賴清德及他們支持者對立的證據:














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