歐洲國債連環套

我們知道自去年12月開始，美國聯準會金援歐盟，以紓困歐洲銀行，並在今年1月18日開始換取一連串貶值美元的時間至現在。有趣的是，我們以50日與200日平均線的相對位置，發現在2008年的美元指數也有跟今日類似的線型；恰巧的是，在2008年9月20日萊曼兄弟宣布破產及2011年10月31日MF Global宣布破產之前，都看到有美金進行貶值的動作，似乎跟目前希臘遭逢還不起國債的情況相仿。我們便開始懷疑，是不是美國聯準會積極干預美元匯率的結果，就會讓情況加速惡化？



自行以380億歐元蒐購價值500億歐元希臘國債的歐洲央行，這幾天傳出其代表願意認賠、配合紓困希臘的計劃，但在協商中、卻一口拒絕討論擁有120億歐元希臘國債的其他歐盟區國家央行是否也採取同樣行動的可能性。而除了Jim Sinclair指出：歐巴馬與聯準會配合發行保險97%各國國債的美國五大銀行，不願認定希臘破產之外，現任哥倫比亞大學教授、經濟學諾貝爾獎得主Joseph Stiglitz也懷疑：歐洲央行堅持希臘「自願性」債務重建，是唯恐發生骨牌效應，或是為了掩護發行國債保險的某些銀行，來避免保險金的支付。

根據ISDA網頁的資訊，可以查到決定不予認定希臘破產的dealer銀行包括，Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Credit Suisse及Deutsche Bank，這樣就不只是美國五大銀行，連歐洲銀行也有可能發行保險Credit Default Swap(CDS)；有趣的是，目前也查到其中的BNP曝險金額達4.45億歐元與Société Générale也購入1.45億。若這些銀行發行CDS保險給其他買希臘國債的投資機構，也同時購入希臘國債來對作，就得面臨雙重的損失，它們當然有意不想賠償。


但更嚴重的是，這次希臘國債即使重建順利，仍將引起一連串的不良循環，因為根據報導，買到希臘國債的法國及德國就合計907億, 義大利及葡萄牙共有114億；買到葡萄牙國債的西班牙近850億，德國約400億，法國約300億；而買西班牙國債的德國有1,800億，法國1,400億，美國195億。雖然各個銀行目前所賣的保險金額未知，但以2010年12月31日的資料為例，Bank of America對CDS保險在2010年就賺進90億美金，Kash推估這些銀行在當年的保險金額，約有1.5~2兆美金。有這些無法化消的連環套債務呆帳存在，等於間接證實上述Jim Sinclair的指控及Joseph Stiglitz的猜測。


美國聯準會至今投入至少7,000億美元，歐洲先前暫時成立的EFSF是為了挽救愛爾蘭及葡萄牙的債務，將在七月被另一個永久的穩定機制(ESM)所取代，但也只能提供借款約6,600億美元，可是目前資金還未到位，即使加入IMF的援助，也遠遠不及歐豬五國合計8兆以上的債務。因此當IMF、歐洲央行及歐盟代表同聲一致要求希臘降低最低工資20%及裁撤政府雇員15,000名，也只不過是掩飾這些銀行貪婪醜聞的煙霧彈。

2010年5月希臘第一次獲得1,100億歐元的紓困金，但這次債務重建卻要化消1,000億，損失的1,000億，由誰來承擔？Bank of America宣布減薪25%，JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup和Morgan Stanley也要減少股票獎勵15~25%；Barclays也公開要減薪30%，Deutsche Bank則刪15%，Credit Suisse也說要減。現在看來，這些銀行早知道無法解決這些問題，只不過是藉討論這些枝節來拖延時間，並將責任推給他人的手段而已。希臘問題或許可以暫獲解決，但接下來3~5月即將到期的葡萄牙、西班牙、愛爾蘭及義大利債務呢？

More...

QE3落空，貨幣大戰開始

美國一月份工作猛然增加24萬3,000個，讓失業率從8.5%驟降至8.3%，此出乎意料的結果及其他好轉的工業製造數據，量必使市場恢復對美國經濟復甦的信心。但這個發展同時衝擊柏南克的四個盤算：1. 維持通膨2%；2. 維持低利率至2014年；3. 金援歐洲央行；4. 貶值美元。柏南克在最近的作證表示，利率每上升一個基點(basis point)，聯邦政府持有的房貸呆帳，會進一步產生損失達20億美金；因此Russ Winter推估，利率每增加1%，就會損失2,000億。這意味著柏南克的前兩個目標，看似在在防止通縮及經濟衰退，現在有如在阻礙利率的攀升，因利率升高將造成聯邦政府的損失。我懷疑，這些數據搞不好就是今年最好的。


另外，柏南克自去年12月金援歐洲央行，以換取美元的貶值，至今已經投入超過7,000億美金(見上圖)，或許一時可以削減赤字，並賺到不少利息錢，但卻被質疑是護航五大銀行及歐巴馬選情的政治操作。但在日本央行及財政大臣先後出面抗議，美元的貶值導致日圓飆升，不利日本出口，連夏普(Sharp)都大聲抱怨無法做生意之情況下，日本央行本有充足的銀彈，如今更有充分的理由，說不定從下周起就打破這陣子全球為挽救歐債讓美元貶值的默契，全力做貶日幣來挽救外銷，其後續效應，不容小覷。


世界其他七大央行在去年即跟美國一樣大印鈔票(見上圖)，早就為貨幣大戰準備好充足的銀彈，但未必就用於QE。若在日本央行帶頭力貶日圓，又有其他國家陸續跟進(相信美國的許多對手，包括支那、產油國家、拉丁美洲及蘇俄等，會很樂意去做這樣的對抗)，柏南克、美國五大銀行及歐巴馬這兩個多月的如意算盤，便遭到挑戰。2月29日歐洲央行將進行第二波的銀行紓困，若柏南克即使有意繼續援助，也有可能縮小規模，以免接下來兩面(貶值美元與金援歐盟)、甚至三面(前兩者再加QE3)作戰，無法兼顧而有失。美元回升之後，歐債問題若加速惡化，現今柏南克投入歐盟的錢等於是替自己挖了一個無法自拔的錢坑。


順帶一提，由於美國經濟的復甦看似有望，市場立即削減因柏南克在1月25日維持低利率的承諾、所帶來對QE3的期望，黃金一夕之間跌掉30塊以上，與1月25日的上漲幅度相當，應該暫時無法再攻去年9月1923.7的高點，也有可能讓2月3日的1765.9成為近期的高點；若持續下跌，50日與200日平均線一但形成死亡交叉，賣壓可能更盛。但在如今黃金已被很多作手熱炒之下，近來進場的投資人恐怕要套牢一段時間，也就是要等確定希臘是否破產後，才可能再有上漲的機會。

More...

牽動世界經濟全局的複雜希臘國債問題

1月30日，Ellis Martin電話訪問Jim Sinclair (Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation董事長)，道出美國政治操作希臘國債問題的秘辛。Sinclair指出，美國五個最大銀行，組成一個International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)，承攬世界其他銀行或投資機構購買許多國家國債的保險業務 (credit default swaps)，共達整體的97%，當希臘正準備以約30%的價值償還債權人，這五大銀行就必須進行賠償；但在此之前，這五大銀行(Under "EMEA")須先「認定」希臘為「破產」。可是這五大銀行付不起70%希臘國債的損失，為免搬石頭砸自己的腳，因此有可能「不予認定」。


又由於美國聯準會介入金援歐盟，間接紓困歐盟的銀行，正值歐巴馬要競選連任，這些銀行也捐給歐巴馬不少錢，甚至比歐巴馬的共和黨對手Romney多好幾倍，政治獻金名單及金額見這裡 (Under "Keynes and Behemoth: The Corporatocracy")，因此他們若最後裁決「不予認定」，會被外界認為是為避免影響歐巴馬選情的政治操作。可是有了去年10月31日MF Global「破產」時、償還50%債務的先例，希臘若只償還30%、卻「未被認定為『破產』」，勢將引起另一波爭執。

正因為美國聯準會金援歐盟5000億美元，形同另一波「全球」的量化寬鬆 (Quantitative easing)，這陣子暫時讓國際間有了急貶美元的共識，充沛的資金流入市場，導致美股及黃金帶頭領漲。歐洲銀行已向歐洲央行開口要求原先預估紓困金額兩倍甚至三倍的借款，一但這波希臘國債問題底定，這五大銀行又與歐洲銀行或投資機構談不攏保險金的支付，造成資金出現暫時短絀、周轉不靈，就可能兩敗俱傷，並同時大大影響歐盟與美國的經濟。以下是訪問中，Jim Sinclair說明最完整的一個片段，全文未修改的逐字稿請見這裡。

Jim Sinclair: Well, you have to understand the critical nature of today, today the time we're talking our listeners and between ourselves. The return to quantitative easing is an event which impacts liquidity. Historically always and into the future the main motivator for the general equities markets, the Netflixs and the Googles, of the world is liquidity. The reason why we came of out the bear market in 2009 was quantitative easing.

The reason we've been able to hold the general equity levels that are relatively high levels meaning circling around that 1,200 on the Dow is without any question liquidity. The grease of the wheels of the general equities market has always been not necessarily earnings per share. Not necessarily valuations historically. But, rather the presence of liquidity or lack of liquidity in the in the market at any given time. The advent of quantitative easing is good for gold. It is good for the general equities markets. It is negative for the dollar and positive for other than dollar items.

However, QE is not a solution to anything. Quantitative easing or the increasing of liquidity or the actually creation of money out of thin air is the bubble making mechanism that you saw in real estate. It's a bubble making mechanism that you see in asset values. It puts money into the hands of people that have to make investment decisions and will make them generally along the lines of what their most familiar with and what they're most used to dealing in.

Today we are standing on the threshold of a credit event that is the determination of how the Greek debt will be handled amongst the euro nations. The people who will define what that credit event is, is the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will determine whether a credit event is a default, sovereign default or not.

In the most practical sense we're in an election year. In the most practical sense and recognizing that five of the U.S. major banks hold 97% of the obligations on credit default swaps that is that they have guaranteed the buyer of this instrument against the default of an instrument primarily euro debt. So, the credit default swap is actually an insurance policy that brokerage firms issue. And, there is an organization which oversees that basically writes the master agreements.

Came into existence in the early 1900/1992, I mean, early 1990s. It was the body that determined that Goldman and Deutsche Bank and all those should be paid out on the shorted backed issues. It's the body that will determine whether or not a sovereign nation has defaulted. So, as we kick the can forward we'll have to for practical reasons, 97% of this insurance policy granted by five the U.S. largest banks, this credit event about to happen the 30% or approximately, it's got a 3 in front of it, where the euro will, where it will be determined that Greece's debt will payout is either going to be determined to be a credit default or not a credit default.

Excuse me. Yes, a credit default or not a credit default by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is primarily made up of representatives of the banks that deal in these items. And, logic would say that their determination would be that no matter what happens to the Greek debt it's not a default because if they decided otherwise they'd have to payout.

What I'm doing for you is giving out a case of why more liquidity not less liquidity is forthcoming, why we've already set up and why the Fed last week already announced the return to QE. While even before that in late December the Fed provided over $500 billion dollars worth of swaps to the ECB who in turn lent that money to their member banks who in turn used that money to buy euro debt, which is global quantitative easing. The bottom line is what's taking place is good for equities as it is good for gold investments as it is not that good for the dollar.

It's very complex. We've made this world so complex that simplicity no longer exists in casinos everywhere. Bottom line of this analysis, both equity markets and equities of gold and gold itself should rise. Bottom line of this analysis 80 to 82 is the top on the dollar for fundamental reasons. The real importance of this analysis is that you cannot kick this can of credit default swaps much further down the road because there is a point, the point is zero.

How in the world would the International Swaps and Derivatives Association say that Greece was not in default if they paid back 10% of what they owed? We're nothing of what they owe. And, five major banks holding these had to insure the debt. And, in going to insure the debt compared to the capital of the banks they don't have it. It's another paper game we've created to enrich the banking industry and to put the entire world into potential jeopardy.

More...