Bloomberg.com近來發表一篇由Michael Tsang and Eric Martin共同執筆的文章,探討依據單一技術指標操作指數是否可以獲利。他們利用八種技術指標(stochastics, Bollinger bands, relative strength, commodity channels, parabolic systems, the Williams %R, Directional Movement Indicator and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)來操作,每一種指標使用US$100,000,在個別指標顯示 "買進" 訊號時,多單進場、並維持持有,直到該指標顯現 "賣出" 訊號時才出清;賣出同時建立空倉,等到下一次 "買進" 訊號出現時回補,並再買進多單。
操作標準普爾500指數的績效成果,以下是分別以10/09/2007 - 3/09/2009及3/09/2009 - 5/01/2009兩個時期列出,前者代表去年以來的下跌波段,後者代表自3月9號以來的反彈行情;最後的表格是10/09/2007 -5/01/2009的總績效。
當指數下跌時,依Directional Movement Indicator(DMI)與Moving Average Convergence/Divergence(MACD)的指示成效最佳。
Indicator | 10/09/2007 - 3/09/2009 |
Relative Strength Index | -49.0% |
Williams %R | -41.7% |
Commodity Channel Index | -38.7% |
Parabolic Systems | -36.6% |
Bollinger Bands | -31.5% |
Stochastics | -24.1% |
Directional Movement Indicator | +24.0% |
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence | +25.9% |
S&P 500 | -56.8% |
當指數反彈時,按MACD, Parabolic Systems與Relative Strength Index(RSI)的指示操作較好。
Indicator | 3/09/2009 - 5/01/2009 |
Commodity Channel Index | -8.3% |
Williams %R | -8.3% |
Bollinger Bands | -6.6% |
Stochastics | -3.3% |
Directional Movement Indicator | -1.9% |
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence | +7.8% |
Parabolic Systems | +8.2% |
Relative Strength Index | +21.8% |
S&P 500 | +29.7% |
總括而言,在歷經一波上漲及下跌的趨勢中、依DMI與MACD的指示較能獲利。
Indicator | 10/09/2007 - 5/01/2009 |
Williams %R | -43.1% |
Commodity Channel Index | -40.3% |
Parabolic Systems | -34.3% |
Relative Strength Index | -34.1% |
Bollinger Bands | -22.2% |
Stochastics | -21.8% |
Directional Movement Indicator | +9.0% |
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence | +24.6% |
S&P 500 | -43.9% |
以上的結果是否可應用於台股,值得進一步觀察。訪客讀這篇文章時,千萬不要貿然學,因為人家是有計劃練過的,不一定符合台灣的市場。
0 comments:
張貼留言
由於Google留言系統與Facebook留言系統互相衝突,若先有Google留言,煩請繼續用此系統留言;反之,若先有Facebook留言,請繼續用Facebook留言。