2019-05-16

習近平先下台?還是鴻海集團先瓦解?

幾天,我們才預測:因為反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,被川普加增關稅報復,進退兩難的習近平,有可能在一個月內被政變推翻下台,或是狗急跳牆、不惜發動戰爭,來轉移關稅貿易戰困境。昨天川普又簽署一個行政命令,授權商務部長禁止美國企業與影響美國國家安全的外敵控制公司做生意;美國商務部隨即公布,加入華為及其70家子公司到禁止跟美國企業購買零組件的實體清單,5/17即開始實施。

Department of Commerce Announces the Addition of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Entity List
WASHINGTON – Today, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will be adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its affiliates to the Bureau’s Entity List. This action stems from information available to the Department that provides a reasonable basis to conclude that Huawei is engaged in activities that are contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interest. This information includes the activities alleged in the Department of Justice’s public superseding indictment of Huawei, including alleged violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), conspiracy to violate IEEPA by providing prohibited financial services to Iran, and obstruction of justice in connection with the investigation of those alleged violations of U.S. sanctions.

The sale or transfer of American technology to a company or person on the Entity List requires a license issued by BIS, and a license may be denied if the sale or transfer would harm U.S. national security or foreign policy interests. The listing will be effective when published in the Federal Register.

“This action by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, with the support of the President of the United States, places Huawei, a Chinese owned company that is the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, on the Entity List. This will prevent American technology from being used by foreign owned entities in ways that potentially undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “President Trump has directed the Commerce Department to be vigilant in its protection of national security activities. Since the beginning of the Administration, the Department has added 190 persons or organizations to the Entity List, as well as instituted five investigations of the effect of imports on national security under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1962.” Additions to the Entity List are decided by the End-User Review Committee which is comprised of officials from the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, State Department, and Department of Energy. Under § 744.11(b) of the Export Administration Regulations, persons or organizations for whom there is reasonable cause to believe that they are involved, were involved, or pose a significant risk of becoming involved in activities that are contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States, and those acting on behalf of such persons, may be added to the Entity List.

The Bureau of Industry and Security’s mission is to advance U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives by ensuring an effective export control and treaty compliance system and promoting continued U.S. strategic technology leadership. BIS is committed to preventing U.S.-origin items from supporting Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) projects, terrorism, or destabilizing military modernization programs.

而鴻海流失大幅蘋果訂單後,華為等支那公司已成為該集團的大客戶。川普的行政禁令,等於重擊鴻海集團。且在3月21日,郭台銘與華為高層開會,決定將原本群創的訂單全部轉給郭個人與深圳市政府合資的深超光電,以利該公司上市發大財,群創則變成深超光電的小包商,顯有掏空之嫌。


群創已連續兩季虧損,去年第四季虧損7億元,今年第一季稅後虧損37.25億元,每股虧損0.37元,明顯惡化,也創下近3年來單季最差紀錄。經營團隊也在昨天公布決議,董事長兼CEO洪進揚以及總經理楊柱祥自5月起減薪15%,協理級以上高階主管自6月起集體減薪10%。

一天內,數個利空同時衝擊,鴻海集團會不會在習近平下台前先行瓦解,值得關注。

有趣的是,劉仲敬在5/8的訪談亦提到郭台銘跟他的富士康。劉認為習近平反悔與美國簽定已經談好的貿易協議,是為了維護他的獨裁體制。而郭站在習的對立陣營中,貿易戰一旦開始,他的富士康就要全部垮臺。



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